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“Nationally, we expect 94,000,000 more people in 2030 than there were in 2000
About half the homes, office buildings, stores, and factories needed do not exist today…
The U.S. can save over $100 billion in infrastructure costs over 25 years by growing compactly.”
Source: The Brookings Institute & The Urban Land Institute
A University of California study showed that on average 90% of new road capacity is used within 5 years of the road opening
“For every dollar in revenue Grady, Thomas, and Leon County receive from farm and forest land, they are only paying out between $0.38 and $0.67 to provide services.
For every dollar generated by residential development, the counties pay between $1.38 and $1.72 in services.”
THE COST OF COMMUNITY SERVICES: The Value Of Agricultural Lands & Open Space In The Red Hills Region Of Southwest Georgia & North Florida, Tall Timbers Research
…households earning less than $50,000 spend on average 3 times more per year on transportation than they do on retirement, pensions, and Social Security.
Source: DRIVEN TO SPEND: Pumping Dollars out of Our Households and Communities; Center for Neighborhood Technology: Strategies for Livable Communities
“…growth in driving overwhelms planned improvements in vehicle efficiency and fuel carbon content.” - Center for Clean Air Policy
The Public Transit Association estimates a 10% increase in daily trips by transit would result in a 40% reduction in demand for foreign oil
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Reasons for a New Strategy
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Clearly, the strategies of the past aren’t working as they were intended. So it’s time to step back, look at where we are going, evaluate what situations have changed, clarify our goals, and then clarify new strategies in light of what has been learned. In addition to being the first step toward setting realistic goals, understanding potential challenges can highlight potential opportunities.
Changing Demographics
Today’s fastest growing households are young professionals, empty nesters, single parents, couples without children, and senior citizens. Studies indicate that 30% of the current housing demand is for denser, walkable, mixed-use communities, however less than 2% of new housing starts are in this category. AARP reports that 71% of older households currently want to live within walking distance of transit. By 2020, 40% of the U.S. population will be older adults and many will be unable to drive. In fact, one-fourth of today’s 75+ age group does not drive.
Gas Prices, Travel Behavior and Housing Demand
Higher gas prices appear to be changing behaviors and preferences of many Americans. Nationally, there has been a dramatic increase in transit ridership (See My 10, 2008 New York Times article, Appendix B. A recent CBS poll indicated that 73% of people are now considering living in the city (from a story aired on June 23, 2008). Locally, StarMetro documents a 15% increase in transit ridership from May of 2007 to May of 2008. On the 80X express route from Bradfordville to Downtown to Southwood, there has been a 500% increase since December of 2007, and often there is standing room only.
Population Growth
The population of Leon County is estimated to increase by 100,000 (33%) by 2030. This population growth far outpaces the roadway construction budgets available for future decades. As seen in the graph at right, relative to lane miles constructed, the population is growing twice as fast, daily vehicle miles traveled (VMT) is growing 3.5 times faster, and person hours of delay, about 8 times faster. Higher gas prices have, for the first time in decades, resulted in a reduction in miles traveled. However, new technologies are likely to increase fuel efficiency in future years, so increased traffic must still be considered.
Graphic from Florida Department of Transportation
We Just Can’t Build Our Way Out - Funding Challenges
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Higher construction costs. In many cases, the cost of roadway construction has increased four and five fold, or more, over the last decade, greatly reducing the number of capacity projects planned for the next 20 years. While costs have leveled some, the price tag for right-of-way and road construction is still staggering. One reason is that China is currently constructing a massive national infrastructure, as the United States did after World War II, and this has raised the global prices of construction materials. Another is that asphalt is derived from oil, so as the price of oil increased, so does construction.
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Gas taxes. Gas taxes, which have historically funded infrastructure improvements, have not risen with inflation, so their purchasing power has eroded as construction costs have risen. Also, with higher gas prices, gas consumption has decreased. Reduced consumption has many positive aspects, but it also means less money for transportation infrastructure.
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Past policy subsidized sprawl. In hindsight governments can see that trying to build roads to meet demand has only led to more congestion and inefficient land use patterns. As seen in the sidebar, there are very different costs to the community for various development patterns
Regulatory Challenges
2005 Growth Management Act. With the adoption of Senate Bill 360, stricter standards for monitoring over capacity roadways were applied, and localities must show there are cost feasible capacity projects in the Capital Improvement Program prior to approving developments that would push the roadways over capacity.
Connecting population centers to activity centers. The original Transportation Concurrency Exception Areas were limited in size, and therefore did not provide opportunity to truly plan for mobility by connecting residents to the offices, schools, shopping, and entertainment  they utilize. The disconnected nature of the areas also makes it difficult to provide development mitigation options that support general mobility.
Level of Service standards for other modes. One major reason the existing Transportation Concurrency Exception Areas have not worked is that there was no mechanism to tie the development to measurable improvements to the pedestrian, cycling, or transit facilities.
Many other, disconnected efforts and planning areas. As a result of the Bike/Ped Master Plan, Gaines Street Revitalization, Southern Strategy Sector Plan, the Community Redevelopment Areas, the Downtown Improvement Authority, and the Neighborhood Renaissance program, much of the outreach and needs assessment has already been completed. But nothing has been done to tie all these plans together, and to connect them to a funding source for needed infrastructure.
Greenhouse gas reduction requirements. Recent state legislation now requires local government to include green house gas reduction strategies in their Comprehensive Plans, and these strategies must include policies to support compact, efficient land use.
Community Character Challenges
Lack of housing near universities & college degrades neighborhoods. When densities near the universities and college are problematic due to roadway constraints, pressure for apartment or condominium housing is placed on surrounding neighborhoods. This pressure has over time forced some homeowners to leave what were once stable neighborhoods.
Traffic patterns create barriers. Traffic patterns designed to move the most cars in the most efficient manner now serve as barriers to pedestrian and bicycle movements. Large arterials like Monroe, Apalachee Parkway & Tennessee Street pose unpleasant and sometimes dangerous barriers between population centers, shopping, and entertainment.
Lack of design standards. Past attempts to introduce mixed use or higher density residential uses near established neighborhoods have raised concerns over aesthetics and property value. Often, neighborhoods may be willing to support higher density or mixed use developments if they can be assured the design will be pedestrian friendly and of high quality.
Personal Choice & Finances
The automobile became, and still is, popular because of the freedom it offered individuals to go wherever whenever they wanted. Ironically, however, in many ways the automobile has now removed the element of choice. In many cities, it is near impossible to find an affordable home where you have transportation options. Most new homes are built in subdivisions that are separated from stores, schools, services, and churches and it is often too far or too dangerous to try to walk or cycle to them. The lower densities and spread out nature of development also means it takes longer for buses to make their routes, and bus stops are often a long way from a person’s front door.
The automobile still makes sense for many trips, but because growth has centered on access by the auto for so long, living a normal life is difficult for those who don’t or can’t drive. Increased gas prices has made this evident on a broader scale as many families struggle to balance travel to and from work with paying bills or buying groceries. For example, even before this year’s surge in oil prices, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported that the average Atlanta family spent 29% of their income on housing costs and 32% on transportation costs for a total of 61%. (“Transportation makes Atlanta very unaffordable, ” 06/11/07)
The Environment
Transportation accounts for a full third of CO2 emissions nationally, and 46% in Florida. Even with the best possible scenario of technological advances in fuel efficiency and emissions, current population and development trends would result in a 46% increase in greenhouse gasses in the state of Florida. Clearly, technology alone is not the answer.
Any meaningful greenhouse reduction plan must also include compact and efficient land use. In the research document, Growing Cooler: The Evidence on Urban Development and Climate Change, the Urban Land Institute and Smart Growth America recommend a “Three-Legged Stool” for carbon reduction from automobiles. 
Finally, sprawl means that rural, agricultural, and forest lands, along with the ecosystems within them, are lost. As seen in the sidebar on this page about funding challenges, more compact development saves both land and money.
Energy Independence
As with green house gas reduction, energy independence cannot be solved with technology and new resources alone. Land use strategies that support pedestrian, cycling and transit modes will also be necessary to make significant gains.
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