Demographics and Trends

Comprised of Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, and Wakulla counties, the Capital Region is a diverse community with a rich heritage and unique local culture. As our community begins the long range transportation planning process, we should focus on promoting and implementing transportation and land use planning strategies that enhance the quality of life for residents. We should ask ourselves, “What strategies will help the Capital Region meet the future transportation and housing needs of our community without threatening our local environment and valuable natural resources?” To answer this question,we first need to understand who we are as a community.

Capital Region Population 
 
Population growth within the Capital Region has historically been strong.
In 2008, the Capital Region population was estimated to be 370,773 persons,
reflecting a 15.8 percent increase since 2000.

Population Estimates, 2008		Census Population, 2000
Gadsden County	50, 611	45,087
Jefferson County	14,553	12,902
Leon County	274,892	239,452
Wakulla County	30,717	22,863
Total	370,773	320,304

Source: University of Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Estimates of Population by City and County in Florida, April 1, 2008.

This historical trend of population growth is expected to continue over the next 30 years. By 2035, the Capital Region is projected to add over 100,000 new residents to the local population. We can responsibly plan for this expected 30 percent increase in populaton through the promotion of sustainable community design and transportation options.

2010		2015	2020	2025	2030	2035
Gadsden County	50,700	52,700	54,600	56,500	58,200	59,800
Jefferson County	14,700	15,300	15,800	16,300	16,700	17,200
Leon County	279,200	297,300	312,400	327,100	340,800	353,200
Wakulla County	32,500	36,500	40,200	43,900	47,300	50,500
Total	377,100	401,800	423,000	443,800	463,000	480,700

Source: University of Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Estimates of Population by City and County in Florida, April 1, 2008.

Population growth means more people crowding the roads as they attempt to get where they need to go. Throughout the United States, population increases and growth have been increasingly accommodated through sprawl development. Sprawl is the spreading out of a city and its suburbs over more and more rural land at the periphery of an urban area. This involves the conversion of open space or rural land into built-up, developed land over time. Pictured below, sprawl development is typified by isolated residential developments which require an automobile to reach shopping centers and other areas of the community. In planning for sustainable future growth, we can restrict future development to existing urban areas. This will protect the local environment and valuable natural resources for the enjoyment of future generations. Through innovative transportation planning, we can connect existing residential areas to retail and community centers by increasing mobility options. By developing land use policies that promote infill of existing urban areas, we can reshape our communtiy.

Photo courtesy of  Livablestreets.com

Who We Are
 
The Capital Region is a diverse community. Our approach to transportation and land use should be comparibly diverse and include options that meet the needs of all residents. In 2007, 18 percent of Capital Region residents lived in poverty. This means that almost one out of every five residents have restricted transportation and housing options. Many may not have access to an automobile. As we consider how we want our communtiy to develop over the next few decades, we should acknowedge that an auto-centric transportation system is not an equitable transportation system. By providing a variety of land use and transportation options, we increase the options and quality of life for our local residents. An equitable transportation system is multimodal and faciltiates access to employment opportunites, schools and shopping centers for all residents by providing safe and reliable transit service and ensuring mantainence and increased construction of pedestrian and shared-use facilties.

As we consider those Capital City residents with restricted options due to income, we should also consider residents whose mobility may be restricted by age or health. Currently, 14 percent of Capital Region residents are aged 60 or older. Within the 20 to 30 year long-range planning time frame, approximately 20 – 33 percent of our population will be aged 60 or older. Increasingly, aging Capital City residents will need to rely on various travel modes to help them accomplish daily errands. Various mobility options will also help these residents enjoy an enhanced quality of life.

Age Group Percent Under 5 years 6.3% 5 to 9 years 5.5% 10 to 14 years 5.8% 15 to 19 years 8.7% 20 to 24 years 12.2% 25 to 34 years 14.2% 35 to 44 years 13.0% 45 to 54 years 14.0% 55 to 59 years 6.3% 60 to 64 years 4.4% 65 to 74 years 5.4% 75 to 84 years 3.2% 85 years and over 1.0% Source: American Community Survey, Tallahassee, Florida Metropolitan Statistical Area, 2007.

Though many Capital Region residents have the means and ability to own an automobile, if we are going to build a sustainable future, we should promote transportation and land use strategies that would allow these residents to choose other options. Over 26 percent of residents are between 20 and 34 years old. This age group includes college students and recent graduates, professionals, singles, young couples and new families. The housing and transportation needs of this age group are different from more established or permanent residents. Younger residents may be more interested in living closer to the workplace, school, or in specific areas that provide access to entertainment and commercial centers. By providing access to a multimodal transportation system, we can reduce reliance on the automobile for daily trips. 

College students are another population that have specialized housing and transportation needs. Currently, there are between 60,000 and 65,000 students attending FAMU, FSU, and TCC. This number is expected to increase to approximatley 85,000 by 2025. Increasingly, this age group is interested in living closer to campus and utuilizing modes of travel outside the automobile for daily trips. Mixed land uses and various mobility options ensure the needs of this growing population can be accomodated without an increase in rural residential dvelopment or congestion.

Where We Go and How We Get There
 

According to the 2007 American Community Survey, 80 percent of Capital Region workers drive to work alone, 12 percent carpool, 1 percent use public transportation, and 4 percent use other means. The remaining 2 percent work at home. Commute times for Capital Region workers averaged 22.5 minutes. Comparitively, results from the 2001 National Household Survey reveal that commuter trends in the Capital Region are similar to the rest of the country. The drive alone commute rate is slightly lower that the national average of 81.1 percent and the Capital Region’s carpool commute rate is a substantial improvement over the national average of 9.4 percent. However, 5.1 percent of American workers commute by public transit, while 2.8 percent walk, and 1.6 percent commute by other means such as bicycling. Commute times for American workers averaged 23.3 minutes.
 
Across the United States, the average commute time increased by more than 10% from 1995 to 2001, reflecting slower commute speeds and greater congestion. Increased congestion is a regional problem that requires a regional solution. Based on results of the 2000 U.S. Census, 49.2 percent of workers from Gadsden, Jefferson and Wakulla counties commute into Leon County for work. Overall, 85 percent of Capital Region workers are employed within Leon County. Combined with a projected 30 percent increase in the Capital Region population by 2035, this means that everyday, an increasing number a Capital City commuters in private automobiles are congesting roadways. In the past, planning strategies have focused on increasing roadway capacity for vehicles as the primary method of alleviating congestion. Increased roadway capacity is an unsustainable strategy to manage this congestion. Traffic patterns designed to move the most cars in the most efficient manner now serve as barriers to pedestrian and bicycle movements. High-speed, multi-lane highways through central city areas pose unpleasant and sometimes dangerous barriers between residential areas, retail and other activity centers. We cannot build our way out of the future congestion that will inevitably result from expected population growth. Various transportation options, including increased transit service and a safe and continuous bicycle and pedestrian network, can provide other mobility options. Without an increase in those mobility options, transportation costs, congestion and pollution will increase substantially for Capital City residents.

Where Will We Go in the Future?
 
Over the next 30 years, the Capital Region is expected to experience a 30 percent increase in population. A significant proportion of this growth is projected to occur in Leon County. It is also expected that a significant number of residents from the Capital Region will continue to commute into Leon County. Our community can realize significant benefits from a regional approach to transportation and land use planning that creates mobility options. That is why the local Capital Region Transportation Planning Agency is beginning the Regional Mobility Plan.